Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
